The four seasons reincarnate, the years change, and the time will replace the old with the new!




In 2020, a very unusual year, many changes are taking place calmly.




Perhaps no profession in the world is as divided as the photovoltaic profession in China today. On the one hand, it is booming and on the other hand, it is hopeless.




There may be few occupations in the world that have the same experience as China's photovoltaic industry today. In the first half of the year, shopping malls were still full of fun, and the carnival stopped in the blink of an eye.




However, there may be few occupations in the world that have the same potential to change the global power format as China's photovoltaic industry today. No matter how they are carried out in the future, they will become the most profound brand of this era.




Summarize and write down the key career changes in 2020. The most profound feeling is that this is a career with fresh stories, rather than the same appearance. It is lucky to be able to witness these changes and ongoing changes as a recorder.







1. The curtain of the listing of photovoltaic enterprises is open




On February 13, 2020, Yingjie electric, the leader of single / polycrystalline furnace power supply equipment, landed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, breaking the silence of photovoltaic stock market under the haze of the epidemic in recent years, and officially opening the "super cycle" of IPO listing of photovoltaic enterprises in 2020.




Then, 12 photovoltaic enterprises, including Shangneng electric, Saiwu technology, Jinbo Co., Ltd., Jingke technology, altway, Trina Solar, dike Co., Ltd., Meichang Co., Ltd., gaotest Co., Ltd., Zhengfan technology, zhongxinbo and goodway, were listed one after another. Suneng technology, Shouhang, Hemai and Asia silicon industry also entered the queue, and the listing application materials have been accepted.




Without key nodes and disruptive events, everything seems to come naturally. But if we only list the names of these enterprises, we can't imagine and understand the amazing changes in our career this year.




The biggest reason on the back is that the unprecedented global epidemic has become an important driving force for the accelerated development of renewable power. Globally, the voice of developing renewable power to improve the climate and environment is stronger, and photovoltaic bears the brunt and is favored by all parties!




Since the beginning of 2020, affected by the epidemic, in addition to the rising trend of medical devices and other sections, other sections have been "floating green", and the market value of head photovoltaic enterprises has shrunk by more than 5 billion in a short time! But soon, the domestic epidemic was properly controlled, and the photovoltaic stock market gradually warmed up. There were more than 800 trading boards throughout the year, and the leading stocks even rose sharply.




Looking at this momentum, the photovoltaic industry is ushering in a new golden age.




2. Silicon material "battle" started




Since the second half of the year, everyone has inspired a word in their heart: "rise"! Almost everything is raising prices! Whether it is the silicon material in the upstream, the battery chip in the midstream or the system integration in the downstream, it seems that it has now formed a chain reaction. Of course, the inverter is out for the time being.




The root cause of the chain reaction is that on July 19, poly GCL's Xinjiang polysilicon factory exploded, and then went on strike for a month. On the morning of August 18, Leshan, Sichuan, suffered a once-in-a-century flood. Yongxiang shares, a subsidiary of Tongwei shares, another large polysilicon producer in China, had to stop production urgently.




The shortage of upstream material supply soon triggered a rise in prices. Photovoltaic enterprises are facing huge cost pressure due to the rise of material prices. Then photovoltaic glass also begins to be unbalanced between supply and demand, the capacity gap is becoming larger and larger, "Crazy" price increases, and even packaging materials are experiencing price climbing.




Previously, the time-division pricing of enterprises signing contracts was relatively low. Under the influence of the price increase storm, a number of occupational defaults occurred, some photovoltaic projects were blocked, and even the capital turnover of many small and medium-sized enterprises became more and more difficult.




At that time, some people thought that continuous price increase would slow down the development of career in the short term, which was wrong. We were thinking of ways to "grab goods"! Don't underestimate the strength of capital. With the price increase of raw materials, the photovoltaic stock market is almost all up.




This is a weak signal of career development! The world power network / photovoltaic headlines began to speculate that the price of silicon material will rise slightly in the first half of 2021 at least. Although according to the existing capacity / new production data released by enterprises, the polysilicon material capacity will exceed 600000 tons by the end of 2020, and the global polysilicon material capacity will reach 759000 tons in the ideal state in 2021, most of the newly invested capacity will not reach production until Q4.




According to the current situation, in order to match the rapid increase of global photovoltaic installed capacity in the next year and the continuous expansion of production by low-end enterprises, the supply and demand relationship of polysilicon materials is still very tight in the first half of the year.




However, there are smart and obscene enterprises that have long signed a long single lock. Since the beginning of 2020, Longji, Trina Solar, Jingke and other enterprises have signed a long silicon material list of 774500 tons. Meanwhile, Longji signed the largest order planning. In August and December, Longji signed a contract with Asian silicon industry and new special power for the next five years, with a total supply of 394800 tons of polysilicon materials.




The second is Trina Solar, which signed a contract with Daquan new power and Tongwei in the next three years, with a total supply of 109600 tons of polysilicon materials. Jingao signed a contract for the supply of 140400 tons of polysilicon materials in the next five years; Jingke signed the supply of 93000 tons of polysilicon materials in the next three years.




Together with this, the supply and demand of glass is not optimistic.




3. Highlight the advantages of "Integration Leader"




In the new golden age of photovoltaic, the whole vision is improving, and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce, which forces photovoltaic enterprises to adapt to changes and seek to break.




In 2020, when the supply-demand relationship and price fluctuation of the whole photovoltaic industry chain are significant, the three vertical integration leaders, Longji, Jingke and Jingao, support the terminal components through the upstream links, so as to enhance the cost advantage of the component links and the competitiveness of the mall to the greatest extent.




The integration strategies of the three enterprises are also slightly different. Longji's surplus business centered on silicon chip production capacity, and components are mainly sold through obscene channels, while Jingao and Jingke's surplus business centered on the sale of components, and silicon chips / batteries are carried out in a supporting manner.




The so-called East is not bright and the west is bright. When necessary, the East and the west can complement each other. For this reason, under the condition of soaring industrial chain prices in 2020, the surplus of the three enterprises has increased well. Together with this, Longji, Jingke and Jingao also expanded their production in 2020.




Seeing the layout and favorable effects of leading enterprises, many people think that the layout and extension of "integration" ideas of career related enterprises are extremely important. However, in the photovoltaic industry with the rapid development of shopping malls, it is likely that the heavy assets you expand today will be "old" tomorrow. Many oncoming storms can not be borne by small and medium-sized enterprises. Leading enterprises dare to expand because they have the leading advantage of preemption.







4. "Stratum solidification" intensifies




The so-called "stratum solidification" actually means that resources, customers and channels gather at the head of enterprises, and other small and medium-sized enterprises may face the fate of being annexed or screened. From a certain point of view, "class solidification" is not a unique feature of China's photovoltaic industry, but the general trend of the whole power industry.




On the one hand, the "tentacles" of power giants are extending to all corners of the world. Photovoltaic, wind power and hydrogen energy are the directions they attach importance to. There is simply no "cross-border" now. The "five big and four small" have stepped into photovoltaic shopping malls. SINOPEC should also invest in photovoltaic. Photovoltaic, as a career with bright prospects, of course, its own photovoltaic head enterprises will not miss any shopping opportunities that may exist.




We have also made an analysis before. Whether it is components, inverters or brackets, the professional concentration is improving. The leading enterprises have strengthened their efforts to increase brand efficiency and occupy the market share, which is gradually transformed into excess profit space.




This situation of "stratum solidification" is still accelerating. The selection of top enterprises has even become an embedded idea in the hearts of customers. For a long time, it will deeply integrate the industries and services of these enterprises with their own affairs.




All this is about the future development of small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises, especially for b-end enterprises, which is the acceleration and narrowing of mall space.




5. The two camps of "large-scale" are ready to explode




As the saying goes, the three kingdoms must be divided for a long time. A few figures have highly condensed the operation track of China's history of thousands of years.




The words are concise and comprehensive, and one word tells the secret of heaven. Looking back on the magnificent development history of photovoltaic in China, it seems that it is also in line with this law. The strange logic of "separation and separation" has even become an important element of career history.




On June 23, Atlas, Jiangsu Runyang, Jiangsu Zhongyu, Jingao, Jingke, Longji green energy, Lu'an and other enterprises established the "M10" alliance and issued the joint statement "joint proposal on establishing the standard of photovoltaic professional norms". Together, it is suggested to establish a 182 scale silicon wafer specification, and include this scale in the specification document in the professional specification arrangement, so as to promote the more standardized and healthy development of photovoltaic industry.




On July 9, Trina Solar, Dongfang Risheng, Jingao, Tongwei and aixu announced the establishment of "600W + photovoltaic open innovation ecological alliance" based on the scale of 210 silicon chips. Work together to build products, systems and specifications based on the new skill platform, commit to promoting 600W + ultra-high power component products and solutions, and establish a new format of CO creation, symbiosis and win-win.




It can be seen that the starting point and policy of both sides are to promote career development. We all believe that "large-scale" is the focus of future direction and layout, but why are the two sides on the verge of attack and can't open glue? I don't know if this is another embodiment of seizing the voice of the mall and "stratum solidification".




6. The seven ministries and commissions of the State Council have a firm attitude and drive the central enterprises to follow up




Believe it or not, work is changing dramatically. There has never been a year when all seven ministries and commissions of the State Council have successively issued documents to support photovoltaic!




1. Ministry of ecology and environment: China will vigorously carry out wind power and solar power generation in the next decade




2. Ministry of ecology and environment: issue carbon emission quotas to 2225 power enterprises, and the emission reductions used to offset should come from renewable power




3. Ministry of industry and information technology: photovoltaic glass is not limited by capacity replacement




4. Ministry of transport: encourage reasonable layout of photovoltaic power generation equipment along service areas, slopes and other roads




5. Ministry of transport: formulate technical specifications for roadside photovoltaic engineering of Expressway




6. National power administration: it will continue to introduce a number of policies to support the photovoltaic industry




7. Ministry of Finance: all projects in 2006 and in the future are included in the subsidy list




8. Ministry of science and technology: encourage the "photovoltaic + ecological correction" project and promote desertification correction!




9. Ministry of housing and urban rural development: Specifications for solar power generation projects (Draft for comments)




This is an unprecedented situation and opportunity. Those large power groups no longer hesitate and look around and invest heavily in photovoltaic!




The state power investment put forward the "2035 first-class strategy". It is planned that by 2025, the installed capacity of electric power will reach 220 million KW, and the installed capacity of clean power will account for more than 60%.




During the "14th five year plan" period, Huaneng will do 80 million to 100 million clean power, and began to estimate that the investment of new power adjustment is about 700 billion yuan.




During the next "14th five year plan" period, CGN will seize the historical opportunity to complete win-win cooperation with various cooperative units. It is estimated that by the end of the 14th five year plan, the total installed capacity of CGN new power in operation will exceed 40 million KW.




From 2020 to 2025, the photovoltaic installed capacity of national power corporation needs to increase by 25-30 million KW, and increase the proportion of installed capacity in economically developed areas. The photovoltaic installed capacity is planned to account for 7% - 8% of the total installed capacity of the group. Based on this calculation, there are six years from 2020 to 2025, and the average annual increase is 4.2-5gw / year.




At that time, the controllable installed capacity of the Three Gorges group was planned to exceed 80 million KW, of which more than 96% was clean power. During the "14th five year plan" period and subsequent development stages, the Three Gorges group will adhere to the growth rate of the planned new installation of 15 million kilowatts of clean power every year, so as to contribute to the carbon emission policy.




In addition, according to the calculation of the world power network / photovoltaic headlines, there are 13 "landscape storage integration" projects signed by central enterprises, 2 "landscape storage integration" projects launched and started by local governments, and the total construction planning has been clearly put forward in the 13 "landscape storage integration" projects signed by central enterprises and enterprises, with a cumulative total of 27.93gw.







7. After household photovoltaic, BIPV green construction has become a new trend




Looking at the whole photovoltaic industry, "BIPV" is not a new topic. Since a few years ago, the strategic layout of leading enterprises has begun. However, the trend from the second half of 2020 is that BIPV affairs are more diverse and deeper.




During this period, local governments at all levels have the greatest support and the most far-reaching impact. They take the initiative to promote the development of BIPV green construction by means of planning policies, reward funds and preferential policies. From quietly looking around to sporadic voice, they have now transitioned to strong support.




According to the calculation of world power grid / photovoltaic headlines, more than 20 provinces and cities have issued BIPV related policies. For example, more than 20000 square meters of public buildings in Hunan will use more than one renewable power; Beijing will reward qualified green construction projects with a maximum reward of no more than 8 million yuan for a single project; For projects in line with the integrated demonstration of renewable power and construction in Shanghai, if solar energy is adopted, the benefit area per square meter will be subsidized by 45 yuan, etc.




After experiencing the precipitation of shopping malls in the past few years, the development mode and skill approach of BIPV green construction have gradually matured. There is no doubt that household photovoltaic continues to be hot, and BIPV will become the next career explosion point with the attitude of more use scenarios, and become an important part of the policy of "carbon neutralization".




8. "Carbon neutral" open photovoltaic take-off 40 year cycle








From December 16 to 18, the central economic work conference was held. Doing a good job in carbon peaking and carbon neutralization has become one of the eight key missions in 2021, and a new driving force for clear and vigorous development.




On December 21, the Information Office of the State Council issued the white paper "China's power development in the new era", and in answering reporters' questions, it once again clearly stated that "vigorously carry out photovoltaic power generation, wind power and other renewable power generation, and promote the peak of coal consumption as soon as possible."




Under a series of heavy signals, in order to complete the green power, it is the general trend to carry out generous needle and strive to achieve the peak and even negative increase of coal consumption in the 14th five year plan.




Due to the weakening marginal impact of overseas epidemic and the improvement of photovoltaic economy, it is estimated that the global photovoltaic installation demand will reach 170gw in 2021, an increase of 41.1% at the same time. In China, due to the deferred bidding projects and parity projects requiring grid connection at the end of 2021, the installed capacity increment is estimated to be more than 70gw, which will be about 1.6 times that in 2020.




There is no doubt that the high prosperity of photovoltaic has been guaranteed.
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